Weather Update

Snow Mountain Ranch Forecast

2009-12-22T23:16:00.004-07:00

Thurs 7:49am

TODAY
Partly sunny. Highs 11 to 17. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows near zero. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.
CHRISTMAS DAY
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. highs around 19.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. lows 5 below to 1 above zero. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill readings 10 below to 20 below zero after midnight.
SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 19. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows 5 below to 15 below zero.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s. lows around 4 below.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs around 20. Lows 1 below to 9 below zero.

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009--Urgent Update**

2009-12-21T21:41:00.012-07:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
453 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

...GUSTY WINDS AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...

.A LARGE WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LAST NIGHT HAD
BLOCKED SOME RURAL ROADS. SNOWFALL WAS DECREASING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL END IN ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM
THIS STORM HAS RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS WINTER STORM. TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS THE
IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE MORE SEVERE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS IN AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIGGSDALE TO
FORT MORGAN AND DEER TRAIL WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW
TODAY.

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009--Update*

2009-12-20T13:10:00.009-07:00

Click here for Your Forecast

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009

2009-12-16T00:06:00.006-07:00

Greetings All!!
We are closing in on yet another Wonderful Christmas in the Rockies! I am definitely looking forward to spending time with all of the family and sharing in many fun activities and the Reason for this joyous season!

I would like to give you all an update on the weather and travel across Colorado during our time together. We are currently sitting at a forecast time of about 204 hours out from today. For those traveling on Thursday expect some light snow showers possible in the Central Mountains and Berthoud Pass. Friday travelers could see less of a chance of snow along the Pass. There is no significant weather showing in the models at this time for travelers arriving. Temperatures are ranging from low teens at night to mid to upper 20's during the day. The only significant weather pattern showing up is about 264 hours out on Sunday. An upper level trough is projected to impact the central mountains with light to moderate snow accumulation lasting into Monday morning. Any inch accumulation is difficult to predict at this time. The position of this upper level disturbance will play an important role as to the amount of snow we could expect to see at the YMCA. As the forecast window decreases this will be easier to track and predict the significance of this Sunday storm. More to come in the following days!

Below is a Temperature grid for Thursday evening:

Snow 10/29/2009

2009-10-29T18:24:00.007-06:00

This large winter storm is finally starting to depart with snow tapering off through this evening. Total snowfall so far is 16.0 inches with very light snow still continuing. Tomorrow should be much warmer than today and provide some decent sunshine most of the afternoon. This weekend and first part of next week will be clear and sunny for the most part and temperatures will try to make it back to near normal by middle part of next week.

Strong Early Winter Storm

2009-10-28T22:33:00.005-06:00

An early winter storm has hit the Denver Metro area with a strong punch. Temperatures struggled to reach towards 30F degrees today. Snowfall continued throughout much of the day off and on as the strong Upper Level low slowly moved eastward from the Four Corners. By 7:45pm MDT I measured 10.5 inches here in Centennial.

More pictures to follow tomorrow....

My First Tornados

2009-08-30T01:44:00.004-06:00

6/7/09 Chase # 3

Much to catch up on!...

Caught Tornado number 1 and 2 today. The unfortunate part of today was I didn’t have my regular camera with me or any other chasing gear. All I had was my phone; Thank you Verizon for your VZ Navigator coverage in Southern Arapahoe and North Western Elbert counties. I happened to be in the Aurora area when tornado number 1 touched down. Tornado sirens were blaring and the sky was very dark. I was so excited to see my very first tornado. With not really having a plan to storm chase today, I decided to give it my best effort and try to get just a little bit closer to this tornado and maybe be able to snag a couple pictures from my camera phone. I took what pictures I could and kept trying to get closer to this “tube”. I was also trying to stay out of the major hail core that was falling from the northern edge of the core. I made my way to Southland’s Mall where significant damage was strewn about. At this point I was observing that the storm was redeveloping to the south of my current position and looked to be re-intensifying. I headed south towards the Kiowa area as fast as I could to try to catch up with this re-development. Storm motion was almost due east and at a fairly fast pace. As soon as I got far enough south of the core I headed due east towards the base of the now-present wall cloud several miles east. Upon my travel eastward a funnel cloud formed and touched down making this Tornado number 2 near Deer Trail on I-70. This second tornado did not last long but long enough for a few pictures to tell the story. As the tornado development died off and continue to move eastward I decide to call it a day and make my way back home. This was a great chase day and bagged my first two tornados for the afternoon.

Chase Miles: 78.0

Solo Storm Chase May 24th

2009-05-25T22:19:00.010-06:00

I went on my first solo storm chase on Sunday May 24th. I was heading home from church around 1pm, noticed that the skies were looking very ripe for storm development. Upon looking at a surface plot I noticed a convergence line that had setup in the Denver metro area and storms were firing off this line and propagating northeast. I made a quick look at updated imagery and decided to grab my gear and head out to try to catch some storms. As soon as I got the vehicle setup I noticed a tornado warning had been issued for the northern Denver area. This storm fired off the convergence line near Commerce City and rapidly developed into a rotating mesocyclone. A couple of colleagues were already northeast of this tornado warned cell and catching some amazing photos from it. I headed north on I25, then up on I76 to Hudson. Filled up on fuel and received an updated radar scan on GR from a wifi spot (Thanks Eric!). Decided to head east on Highway 52 trying to beat a 1.0” hail producing storm before it crossed the highway. I arrived in Prospect Valley at the intersection of Highway 52 and 79 with only experiencing heavy rain and small hail. I collected some photos and continued heading south on Highway 79 towards Bennett. From Bennett I headed east and stopped in Strasburg. I received several updated radar scans and collected some nice photos and video of the gust front shelf cloud advancing eastward. GR radar was showing a cell moving north towards Deer Trail so I set out to try to intercept. Arrived in Deer Trail but couldn’t get ahead of the storm so I changed course and continued to watch the shelf cloud rolling eastward and showing some small scale low level circulation. I watched this cell for awhile until it lined out, then decided to head back home and caught up with some other chasers for some dinner. Made for a great day with good photos and fun! Total Miles: 188 miles.
Pictures:
Video:

Storms on the plains tonight

2009-05-12T22:34:00.003-06:00

Strong storms are rocking western and central Nebraska tonight. Strong instability and an abundant moisture field is firing off these severe storms. With dew points still in the 60's and surface convergence boundary line, this provides for a great mechanism to fire off these storms. Strong southerly low level jet and a decent area of CAPE will keep these storms going into the night.

North Platte is getting hammered by these storms. Rotation is noted on the storm south of North Platte with a low level change in velocity of 40 knots, fairly strong!

2009-05-05T20:28:00.002-06:00

A severe storm rocking southern Nebraska this evening. This is just east of my old hometown of McCook, NE. This storm was putting down 1.25 inch hail across Furnas county.

Severe Storms in NE Colorado tonight

2009-04-30T00:03:00.003-06:00

This 0.50 degree scan from Goodland is looking north towards Yuma, CO and Imperial, NE

Snow for Colorado

2008-11-03T23:29:00.001-07:00

Well a great looking storm system as far as the alignment of the trough axis to give significant weather to Colorado. The unfortunate part is this system is tracking too far north to bring anything of significance to Colorado. However the western slope is getting a good shot of snow Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning before the trough kicks out and keeps heading east. Models show the trough propagating eastward without much deepening and intensification as it moves over Colorado.

Tuesday:
Western slope will have rainy conditions in the valleys and snow in the high mountain passes. Frontal passage will take place later afternoon/evening period with windy conditions along the western slope during frontal passage. Rain changing to snow late afternoon/evening with broadening across western slope and snow intensifying overnight into Wednesday morning. Upper level dynamic not playing much of a role with snow accumulation. Mid level forcing induced by terrain will be the main forcing component for the intense snow periods. Snow totals Tuesday night/Wednesday morning hard to pin point. Models showing anywhere around 3-6” around Vail/Aspen with 6-12” over the Flattops. Rabbit Ears could pick up 4-8” by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday:
Snow taping off in late morning hours as the system moves eastward. Cold temperatures will dominant as high pressure and subsidence builds in behind the exiting system. Light snow possible throughout the day for western slope. For the Denver area, Foothills and high mountains could see a few inches of snow from this system but nothing much expected other than possible rain showers for the Metro area.

Colder Weather

2008-10-13T17:33:00.002-06:00

After a cold and wet weekend the upper level low is still in place over the dessert SW but will be moving out quickly to the NE. As it moves east tropical moisture will move northward and bring cloudiness tomorrow afternoon to the Front Range area. This will clear out by Wednesday mid-day and bring a nice remaining part of the week. We will continue to have cold mornings near freezing for the next few days.

Changing weather this weekend

2008-10-07T22:52:00.003-06:00

An upper level system is forecasted to dig into southern California Saturday morning. On Sunday morning the upper level Low is expected to eject out of the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies with a 100kt jet max over Colorado. This will provide great upper level support for enhanced moisture convergence in the lower levels on Sunday. A shallow ridge will build in wake of this dynamic trough towards the end of next week.

Saturday mid-day mid level moisture will be transported in the low level jet from the south and increase throughout the day. SW flow will dominate the Colorado region as the upper level system tracks NE on Sunday. Drier NW flow will return to CO by late Monday as the system travels into Canada.

The remaining part of this week will be fairly nice and then a major change for the weekend. A lee-side Low will form on the eastern plains as the main system makes it's way into Colorado Saturday morning. SE flow will dominate the surface levels bringing abundant moisture up from the Gulf late Saturday, producing rain showers across the Central Rockies. Surface moisture convergence will be the strongest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Cold front passage looks to be early Sunday morning along with rain showers. Precip ending by Sunday night and clearing out by Monday morning. Winds will be gusty around 15-20 kts before and during frontal passage.

Temperatures with this system will be colder but not likely for snow in the Denver area. There is a chance that some rain/snow mix might be present on Sunday morning but temperatures still warm enough keeping it in a rain form. After the system totally ejects out the a High pressure moves in, subsidence with cold air will be in place for a few days beginning next week. Lows Monday and Tuesday will be hovering around freezing and slow to warm through the week.

Storm Chase Photos

2008-09-22T23:59:00.001-06:00

First Storm Chase

2008-09-22T23:28:00.005-06:00

I went on my first storm chase ever and it was a blast! Dann Cianca, Jeff Auger and I headed out to northeastern CO on Sunday September 21, to try to catch some storms firing off of the advancing trough from the Pacific. As the afternoon went on we observed lots of convection to our north up in Nebraska panhandle and decided to engage on an intercept. Our target area was Sidney NE with a severe warned mesocyclone supercell just north of the town. As we got closer to our target it was advancing ESE just north of Oshkosh NE. We continued to pursue our target storm even though our road network was getting less opportunistic and daylight was getting shorter. As we headed north of Lisco we noticed our storm was weakening and a large rain and hail shaft spilled out behind the main core. We were loosing our chance of an intercept with a dissipating storm. At this moment we decided to end the chase of this beautiful storm but were thrilled that we had the chance to watch the evolution of this storm. What a wonderful site!! As we started to head back towards home we came across some mature storms giving off cloud-to-ground lightning at the CO/NE border. We stopped along the road to capture some amazing lightning filling the night sky. After an hour and a half we decided we had captured our fill of lightning photos and decided to pack it on home. After 12 hours of traveling and observing the wonderful landscape we were satisfied with our successful chase.

Weather this week

2008-09-17T01:06:00.000-06:00

Updated on September 16th 2008.
Fairly strong high pressure is dominating our area at the current hour and will remain for the next couple of days through this week. On Wednesday and lee side trough will develop on the eastern plains while the western slope will experience increasing clouds and precip associated with a short wave trough moving through tracking towards the NE. Mountain areas could see some lingering clouds and precip with remaining moisture in the mid levels. As the weekend approaches, moderate upper level system will push east across the western US. On Saturday increasing clouds along western CO with precip developing in the afternoon. Eastern CO will experience upslope flow on the plains with clouds developing late Saturday. Sunday will continue to have cloudiness through the morning. On Sunday afternoon a lee side Low will develop and last into Monday morning generating conditions for increasing clouds throughout the day. A strong area of moisture convergence will be present along with precip developing Monday afternoon and evening. These conditions will maintain into Tuesday.

Associated with these surface conditions is the upper level support necessary for these conditions to lapse. An upper level trough system will reach the CA coast on Friday and dissipate as it rolls over the Sierra Nevada Range and down onto the Eastern Great Basin. A second wave in this trough will redevelop on Sunday and continue to dig across the Eastern Great Basin but will only provide a weak jet influence on the CO region as it crosses CO on Monday. This weak upper level support will influence showers and cooler temperatures across the Front Range but will not lead to anything of significance.

Long time no blogging...

2008-09-10T00:53:00.002-06:00

It has been several months since I have written a blog. Lots of changes since then...I finally graduated college from Metro State with a Meteorology degree in May. Soon after that I started a summer job with Jefferson County Sheriffs Office in Emergency Management working on a fuels crew. We cut trees and chipped all the brush and moved logs with big machines. It was a great experience and enjoyed my time with them. I originally took the job thinking we would be doing more wildland fire related stuff and also have a good potential to do weather observations in the field. As it turned out we only went on a couple small fires and I had the privillage of taking weather obs on those fires. So that was a good experience. The rest of the time we were in the forest cutting trees creating a fire break along a community road.

After a few months of doing that type of work I realized that I needed to move on to a more professional and stable job since that was only seasonal work. I really wanted to get some sort of weather related job just to start out and get my feet wet. Lucky for me I had some personal contacts that I got a hold of for a reference to a local meteorological software company. A couple weeks later I was interviewing for a software test position for part time work. It turns out that on Monday September 8th I was hired on by IPS MeteoStar Inc. in Englewood, CO for a meteorological software tester.

So far I am really trying to dive into the job and learn as much as I can working hard. This new job is a step into the hallway of meteorology. I am excited to work for a local Met company where my wife can continue to sprout her career as an EMT in Denver. I am hoping to have a little more extra time to do some of my own forecasting and be able to post updates here. Hopefully I can do a better job of posting than previously.....

Stay tuned!!!

Active March

2008-03-14T09:20:00.000-06:00

Time to catch up on my bloging...
So far March has had an active weather track. Recently the models seem to have a hard time progging these spring like storms. The GFS for the last four days has had a significantly strong trough impacting the Front Range area on Sunday and Monday leaving a mess of rain and much accumulating snow. However just yesterday the GFS is throwing this main area of energy south of Colorado which leaves only light accumulations for the Front Range area.

Zonal westerly flow is bringing Pacific moisture over the mountains and onto the plains in the form of rain on the plains and heavy snow in the mountains. For the remaining part of the week and the weekend mostly zonal flow with small meridional perturbations in the flow. Saturday night increasing SW flow ahead of the next trough will bring a development of light clouds through Sunday morning. As the trough slowly continues to dig south prominant SW flow through Sunday evening with increasing clouds and light precip, mostly rain and a snow mix at night, for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday morning the system starts to eject out and up to the Great Plains. On Tuesday a ridge is building with NW flow and possibly some light clouds. Zonal flow appears to dominate for the remaining part of the mid week.

Weather this Week

2008-02-17T16:24:00.002-07:00

Snowy Sunday with light snow showers ending tonight while a shallow ridge high pressure will move into the area for a couple days acting to warm the atmosphere with NW flow. Wednesday things will start to change with a small short wave pushing down on the ridge giving mostly Wly to possibly SW flow ahead of a small trough cutting in.

Storm Chasing Convention 2008

2008-02-17T16:12:00.003-07:00

My dad and I attended the 10th annual Storm Chasing Convention here in Denver this past weekend. It was an absolute blast to hear and see all the information presented in addition to the pictures and videos presented. We got the see the TIV and DOW from the Discovery Channel TV show. Here are some pictures from our awesome weekend!!!

Active Weather

2008-02-03T17:14:00.000-07:00

Another active weather week in store for much of Colorado, mostly the western slope. Snow will develop on western slope and largely in SW CO by Sunday night. Monday morning snow will start moving into Metro area and increase intensity by late afternoon. Fairly light accumulations should be expected. Snow continue into late evening hours possible and ending over night. This large dynamic disturbance will move out of state on Tuesday. Another short wave system from NW will impact the western slope late in the week. A fairly strong High pressure will build in place over W CO giving continued NW downsloping flow

AMS Conference coming to an End

2008-01-22T23:12:00.000-07:00

It has been a great two days filled with lots of seminars on several interesting topics covering: smoke forecasting using BlueSky network, Severe weather topics, tornadoe topics, new WRF weather modeling framework, and lightning stepped leader process. Tomorrow I will attend a couple more sessions and then will head to the airport to return home tomorrow night.

Tonight we went to a small Grill/bar off Bourbon Street and I had aligator sasuage on a sandwich, tasting something like pork. It was mighty good!! Then leaving the restaurant we encountered foggy streets and a local marching band playing on the corner. We stopped to enjoy the music and pictures.

Weather here has started to change again. Southerly flow from the Gulf has opened up allowing moist air to come onshore. This warm moist air over cool ground has provided the foggy conditions here in the city, probably will remain through the night into the morning hours until the sun can burn off the low layer. I also noticed an upper level cut-off Low has been dominating over the Pacific SW allong side a small amount of the subtropical jet kicking some moisture over to the deep south. Models indicate this cut-off Low will get entrained into a trough setting up over the Pacific NW while another trough behind this will drop in yet another cut-off Low for more of the same conditions over the SW US.

Exploring New Orleans

2008-01-20T22:58:00.000-07:00

It remains cold here in New Orleans with temperatures in upper 30's. It was nice and sunny today with a light breeze. We went to the French Quarter and saw a local Mardi Gras parade last night and walked down Bourbon Street in the French Quarter. There was lots of people and lots of music. Today we took a walk on the River Walk Mall by the convention center and got to see the Mississippi River. After finishing up at the Student Conference we stopped at our first Cajun restaurant for some good tasting grub. Tomorrow starts the main part of the conference and exhibit hall which should be fun!

As far as weather, looking at the upper level model, the short range is showing a cut-off Low retrograding back over the Pacific SW. This setup will bring precipitation to CO and LA into the mid part of the week with the main trough moving trough.

Cold in the South!

2008-01-19T15:30:00.000-07:00

It is cold here in New Orleans, around 40 F with a stiff Pontchartrain breeze. It was raining very heavy this morning on our 6 block walk to the convention center to start our Student Conference. I had a nice rain jacket which worked great to keep my shirt dry but didn't help my jeans since all the water was shed down onto my pants. Needless to say all of our pants were soaked to start off our morning. Between the rain coming down and dodging the large street puddles we were doing pretty well. The conference has been really good so far, have a little break this afternoon and then a career fair tonight. Afterwards might try to find a cajun place to eat.

As far as weather goes, our cloudy skies here will be clearing out soon and maybe get a peek of sunshine before the day is over while the trough continues to move out across Florida. Looking on satellite Colorado is sitting under a shallow high pressure ridge bringing NW flow.

Live from LA

2008-01-19T06:43:00.000-07:00

Good morning. I am live from New Orleans, LA attending the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Annual Conference. It is rainy this morning with clearing on the way for us. Satellite shows a clearing line west of our location moving this way. An arctic cold front is pushing south meeting this abundant moisture line giving freeze warnings for our area. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold here. I will update later but need to get going for opening day. Cheers to all!!!

More Snow!

2008-01-07T16:17:00.000-07:00

Currently steady snowfall in SW Denver at this hour with a nice SE wind bringing snow bands through the area. Low pressure located near four corners area associated with a upper level trough will continue to move eastward but will hang up in the central mountains later this afternoon before making it onto eastern plains late tonight. This will give the Front Range area a shifting wind from the East to the North to finally NW by early morning. Low level SE flow mixed with upper level SW flow are great ingredients for Front Range snow lasting into this evening late. Accumulation in SW Denver area will be 1-3 inches. After the trough passes a shallow ridge will form in place and clear the skies for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon should see light clouds form lasting through Thursdays morning ahead of the next system to affect the Western Slope Wednesday and Thursday.

Big System Coming Through!!

2008-01-06T00:34:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Currently clouds and snow over western CO. Radar picking up snow and moisture that is continuing to develop on western slope. Large upper level trough of Low pressure still hanging in the W US and bringing moisture into CO with SW flow. High resolution model showing very light snow accumulation for Denver area starting around 10 am Sunday morning, 1-6-07. Long term model showing another shot for snow in the Denver area on Monday as the big trough continues Eastward slowly. NW flow will return after the trough passes through leaving mild conditions on eastern slope.

Snow ending soon!!!

2007-12-27T17:21:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Snow continuing across the Front Range area ending around midnight tonight. Totals in the SW Denver area are around 4-5 inches but deeper with areas of drifted snow. Temperatures should drop to near single digits tonight with clouds clearing late. Clear skies to return tomorrow and rest of the weekend, however temperatures will remain cold with thick snow cover. Western slope expected to see more snow this weekend but no snow expected here on eastern slope with a NW to W wind over the mountains acting to dry the atmosphere. Clouds could be expected Sunday night but nothing to special. Looking ahead into the coming week, strong amplified High pressure will dominate with a NW to W wind flow keeping us dry and slightly warmer through the week.

Snow coming Tonight!

2007-12-26T16:39:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Current trough is located in SW U.S. with SW flow currently in the region ahead of the advancing trough. Moisture starting to enter western CO at this hour. Snow storm on track for tonight, Wednesday 12/26, lasting through Thursday 12/27 into the evening hours. Snow machine expected to start up early Thursday morning lasting all day into evening hours giving around 3-4 inches in SW Denver. The upper level trough passing through on Thursday will give decent Q-G omega lifting component to help enhance snowfall rates on Thursday afternoon. Clearing out Friday with High pressure dominating through the weekend will give a NW wind.

Long Range-
Large amplified High pressure building for the start of the New Year remaining through the first week of January with a weak embedded trough passing on Friday 1/4. A slight chance of snow associate with the passing weak trough for Saturday 1/5. Looking fairly dry for the first part of the new year.... more to come!

Unsettled Pattern

2007-12-20T17:51:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
The next cold front to impact our area is currently over NW Utah with prefrontal precipitation over Central Utah. As the front approaches our region temperatures will slowly drop through tomorrow morning, Friday, with frontal passage in the afternoon around 3pm. Precipitation in the form of snow associated with this front will develop with a wind from the north resulting in a small component of the upslope enhancement. Snowfall will continue through the evening and end overnight with winds picking up and shifting out of the NW to W. Total accumulations around 3-4 inches for SW Denver area and less accumulation towards the NE Denver area. Temperatures on Saturday will remain cold with clearing skies before the next system in the progressive wave pattern moves over the region. Clouds will build back into the Front Range area on Sunday afternoon ahead of a small short wave trough spinning up over Western Utah which will move through fairly quickly Sunday night and Monday.

Long Range-
A very unsettled pattern in the up coming week. It is looking like it will be a white Christmas for much of Colorado. The next amplified trough of low pressure will develop to the south and move southward on Christmas morning starting up the snow machine in the morning hours and continuing through the day with a north wind, ending overnight Tuesday. Only light snow expected with this small disturbance in the amount of 2-3 inches. The next system looks to have more of a punch as it will develop over the Four Corners area, intensify and slowly slide southward by Thursday mid-day. Precipitation will wrap up and around this low pressure system leaving around 3-4 inches by Friday afternoon. After these series of waves high pressure will build to the NW and hold fast. Looking into the beginning of the New Year the models are suggesting a fairly strong high pressure ridge holding the pattern.

Snow...Snow...Snow

2007-12-13T10:07:00.000-07:00

I need to catch up now after Finals week. Small batch of moisture to our NW moving this way and will affect our region Thursday night and into Friday.

Short Range-
A weak short wave disturbance will be moving through the Front Range area Thursday night 12/13 with snow developing around 11pm Thursday night. Clouds will develop by Thursday afternoon with FROPA (frontal passage) over night. Snow will continue through late morning on Friday and taper off by the afternoon Friday. Vertical motion by Q-G forcing not very apparent, so upslope will not be very strong if any at all. Total snow accumulations around 2-3 inches. Clouds clearing by Saturday mid-day with NW flow and building shallow high pressure through rest of the weekend. New snow cover will provide strong radiational cooling and will drop temperatures to single digits by Saturday morning but will slightly warm up during day time heating.

Long Range-
Long range looking fairly dry and cold with W to NW flow dominating through the high pressure through the week. Next strong significant trough will dig south and bring moisture from Pacific NW late in the week. A cold front passage will take place on Friday 12/21 with snow developing along western CO as well as Front Range by Friday afternoon. Snow will continue through the night into Saturday morning and ending by Saturday night. Totals look to be around 4-5 inches. Strong Q-G vertical motion on Friday night giving significant upslope component along Northern Front Range enhancing snow fall. More details to come…

Weekend Update

2007-11-30T08:38:00.000-07:00

Focus Region: NE Colorado and SW Nebraska

Short Range-

Models showing moisture filling in on western slope Friday night with southerly winds. Areas of Denver may see a trace of snow with this moisture fetch over the mountains. Models suggesting moisture will be advected North over KA and NE as well as NE CO by Saturday morning by a SE wind. The snow line looks to setup across the I-76 corridor around Ft. Morgan and get heavier the further to the East. Water equivalent around 0.01-0.10 inches which would equate to around 1 inch of snow in the Saturday morning hours. By 11 am all precipitation has moved E ahead of the Low pressure. Area of focus region temperatures around lower to mid 30's F. Any precipitation during the noon time looks to be in various forms, sleet, cold rain, wet snow, as the freezing line sits on Imperial, NE. 5pm Saturday light precipitation over the region with a SW wind changing to the North as a frontal boundary passes through bringing temperatures around the 30's. Saturday night a north wind dominates after frontal passage (FROPA) with temperatures around 30 F. Some radiational cooling from the surface from day time precipitation may occur which would drop the temperatures between 20's and 30's for Saturday night. Sunday morning a possible shower or two but otherwise looking to clear out as all precipitation has moved to the east. Sunday temperatures warming near 40's with strong NW wind around 15 mph. Travel home looks nice and clear but cool temperatures.

Changes for the Weekend

2007-11-29T07:04:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Current storm from the Southwest still on track for the weekend. Moisture will be in place over western slope of CO Friday night. Surface Low pressure position now expected to be over Central CO and will bring moisture from south to north across eastern CO and southwest NE and also along I-76 corridor for Saturday morning. Saturday noon the Low will deepen over the Rockies continuing to push moisture eastward. Saturday night the Low will move northeastward taking most of the moisture with it. Sunday morning low level moisture still hanging around leaving a possible shower or two. Sunday mid-day partial clearing skies with colder temperatures.

Saturday morning precipitation will be in the form of rain/snow/mix, take your pick, and will turn towards snow Saturday night as the cold air moves over the area. Temperatures Saturday morning will be slightly above freezing and will warm towards the noon time then drop off for nightfall due to partial clearing. Saturday max temperatures will be around upper 30's giving a cool rain process. Precipitation form may switch between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow throughout the day as the temperatures fluctuate. Precipitation totals for the I-76 corridor are expected to be around 0.20 inches, which may equate to around 2 inches of snow. Sunday temperatures will warm slightly to around 32 F by noon but will remain cold with clearing skies. I will update this again tonight or tomorrow morning with more details.

Unsettled Pattern

2007-11-27T08:38:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Several waves are setup to come through the area during this unsettled period. The first wave or disturbance will pass with a cold front from the north on Tuesday night 11-27. Behind it NW flow will provide a drying atmosphere giving way to little moisture on the Eastern slope. Cold air with this front will remain for most of the week as we have a very weak ridge setting up behind the frontal passage.

Long Range-
The big storm setup for Colorado that I have been watching for over a week is beginning to decay in the models. On Friday the shallow ridge of high pressure weakens and moves eastward as the next system forms up over the Eastern Great Basin and Four Corners area drawing rich moisture fields from the Pacific/Baja California region. An upper level cutoff Low gets entrained into the flow and the Low pressure over four corners will intensify. By Saturday morning large moisture fields are in place over Western Slope of CO. Saturday afternoon as the Low pressure moves eastward over Southern CO, an upslope component will develop bringing light showers of rain/snow mix across eastern CO and SW Nebraska through late Saturday night. Light snow accumulation around 2-3 inches could be expected with this shower activity throughout the day. By Sunday morning the Low pressure system will eject eastward over the Midwest leaving showers possible across CO and NE. Sunday midday looks to be clearing out with high pressure beginning to build over the area. Temperatures for the weekend across eastern CO and southwest NE will struggle to get above freezing with the exception of daytime heating.

More Changes Coming...

2007-11-19T16:30:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Major changes this week with two snow storms on track to bring only light accumulations to the Front Range. A cold front associated with the first storm is expected to pass through Tuesday morning slowly dropping the temperatures from abnormal highs. Light snow is expected to follow and develop from N to S across the Front Range on Wednesday early morning and decrease intensity late Wednesday evening with possible lingering showers on Thursday morning. Upper level dynamics looking fairly weak for any extra enhancement on the snow accumulations. Accumulations projected at 2-3 inches and will stick around for awhile due to very cold air mass following this cold front. A short break in the weather chain on Thursday before another round of snow associated with storm #2. A leak L pressure will develop over four corners area on Fri morning with possible light snow showers moving from S to N from the mostly Southerly flow around the Low. As the Low moves over Southern CO a slight shift in surface flow from S to SE will continue the snow showers into Friday night. Accumulations around 2-3 inches with this storm. Increasing High pressure from the NW will eject this system out giving slightly warmer temperatures through Wednesday 11/28.

Long Range-
A big system is brewing in the Pacific and will need to watch the timing as it approaches. Long range models are suggesting a lee side Low pressure to form over Central CO on Thursday 11/29 that looks to stall and intensify and move S over Northern NM and very slowly move East on 11/30. The position of the Low will provide an excellent upslope flow over the Eastern Slope bringing light snow Thursday night. As the Low intensifies and pushes slightly south moderate rates of snow could be expected across Eastern CO and SW NE on Friday. Friday night and into Saturday morning the Low continues to intensify and begins to eject out eastward which will act to increase pressure gradients, increasing the N to NW winds slightly, and continue the moderate rates of precip. Low continues to move eastward over Great Lakes region tapering off the snow over the Colorado/Nebraska area by Sunday. At this point models are showing around 1.0 inches of water content, which could translate into 10 inches of snow depending on quality of dendritic patterns (snow/ice crystal pattern). This is a storm to watch future develops as the days continue. Much could change by 1 DEC. Stay tuned...

Possible Snow Coming for Turkey-Day

2007-11-16T08:06:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Should be a nice finish to our week with moderate temperatures under NW flow. Some moisture moves in at the mid levels giving a chance for some cloud development Saturday afternoon. We will be dominated by NW flow for the remaining part of the weekend acting to warm and dry the low level atmosphere. Monday returns with changing W to SW flow in advance of a major trough of Low pressure to move through on Tuesday.

Long Range-
Long range models are suggesting a major storm system to move through Tuesday bringing snow and some cold air to last through the week. A low pressure is expected to setup in W Kansas and move slightly south while losing strength. Frontal passage (FROPA) appears to be Tuesday morning with snow expected through the day on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before the system ejects Eastward on Wednesday leaving very cold air in place under a high pressure. The position of the surface Low is favorable for upslope flow giving enhanced snow accumulations. Accumulations right now appear to be 3-4 inches but depend on the dynamics of the system. Jet stream is placing a decaying 100knot jet streak over southern CO which will enhance system dynamics and help drive the upslope flow even more. We'll keep watching the models to see more details as the system approaches. Stay tuned...

Nothing Special This Week

2007-11-12T16:28:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Well a great Pacific system sure gave way to high pressure and clearing clouds. A little short on precip for sure and clearing clouds by afternoon. Expect more of the same mild and unseasonable weather for Tuesday. A weak disturbance to our North will bring increasing clouds on Wednesday with no signs of any major precip for the Front Range. A fairly strong high pressure will return once again on Thursday with clearing skies and NW flow warming us through the end of the week.

Long Range-
Long range is looking pretty quiet with nothing too significant to speak of in terms of major storms. Another small disturbance will move to our north on Saturday giving increasing cloudiness Saturday. The next possible system looks to be around Thanksgiving holiday but right now not looking too impressive. Things could change and the jet stream could shift further south and bring something significant our way in terms of moisture. Stay tuned....

A Slight Change

2007-11-08T05:58:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
There is slight change in the forecast for the weekend. The remaining part of this week will be very nice and unseasonably warm under the High pressure dominating the West. Saturday a slight cool down is expected as we return to W to SW flow ahead of the advancing system. Winds should remain fairly calm but all in all a nice finish to our week.

Long Range-
Looking further into our weekend forecast, we should expect changing weather for Sunday as a strong Pacific system makes its way into Colorado. Unfortunately models are suggesting most of the moisture to stay in the mountains and be cloudy down in the Denver Front Range. This should be a great snow maker for the mountains on Sunday and Monday. Clouds are expected to increase on Sunday afternoon and remain over night into Monday mid-day. We could get a shot of rain/snow mix during this time but it is not looking favorable for heavy moisture as the Low pressure is setting up too far East. Skies should mostly clear out by Monday evening with possible lingering mid level cloud decks.

Quiet week ahead

2007-11-06T11:31:00.000-07:00

Short Range-
Nothing much to speak of as far as weather concerns for the short range. Nice High pressure dominating our area will bring gradual warming through the week.

Long Range-
The next pacific storm system comes onshore in the NW US on Saturday. The dominant high pressure will be replaced by a lee side Low that sets up on Sunday morning over Eastern CO and will bring moisture along with a cold front for Sunday evening. Chances of snow look pretty good for Sunday evening and overnight and into early Monday morning, providing this system doesn't get pushed to our north like other systems have the past few weeks. This system looks to be a quick mover and clear skies return on Monday afternoon. We'll watch the development of this system through this week.

Weather to speak of...

2007-10-30T20:41:00.001-06:00

Short Range-
Some weather moving through the Denver area tonight. Cold front currently located at this hour across northern CO with surface Low pressure in SE CO giving N to NW winds across Metro area tonight. Frontal passage expected before midnight tonight with increasing clouds over night along with stronger winds during passage. Early morning cool rain showers expected along with strong N winds lasting through morning hrs with partial cloud clearing by late afternoon. Strong surface High pressure to our N will push surface Low out east of CO and gradually clear through the day.

Long Range-
Looking into the rest of the week, this weak system will exit and be replaced by High pressure which will influence a NW wind and a fairly mild end of the week. A small frontal system will remain to our north as a very strong High pressure will remain over Mexico for Friday afternoon and Saturday. Sunday afternoon the winds will pick up with a stronger pressure gradient in place ahead of the next system to move in for Monday. Frontal passage appears to be around mid-day on Monday with post frontal precipitation in the form of snow Monday evening, but only light accumulations with this system. More details to come...

Week of October 28

2007-10-28T16:02:00.000-06:00

Short Range-
After a nice weekend a high presssure ridge will continue to dominant over Colorado before a weak little disturbance to our north brings cloudiness, cooler temps and a brief shower or two on Wednesday. Thursday looks similar with cooler temps and partial cloudiness.

Long Range-
Looking later in our week ahead, a system still looks like it will bring snow to our area but not as much as predicted late last week. Friday afternoon we can expect to see increasing clouds and colder temperatures with the frontal passage as the snow starts falling leaving 1-3 inches possible by Saturday mid-day. A high pressure will move back in for the rest of the weekend before another weaker system strolls by on Monday leaving a couple inches of snow throughout the day. Taking a glance at the models for the following week, there is a signiture of a major system moving down from Canada and bringing snow to much of Colorado. Right now the models are predicting this system to move in on Friday 11/9 and clear out by late Saturday 11/10. This system appears to dig pretty far south and bring in close to 8 inches of snow for Denver if everything pans out. We'll continue to watch this system as the models develop and become more precise.

Week of October 22

2007-10-23T09:26:00.000-06:00

Short Range- Looks to be a nice warming week ahead after chilly night temperatures and snow from the weekend. A strong ridge will be in place over the Western US while a cutoff Low forms over the SE US and retrogrades westward.

Long Range- By Friday afternoon the cutoff Low will push northward over E Kansas and will also push most of the front, that was expected to impact our area, to the north leaving the tailing end of the front to sweep through on Saturday 10/27 bringing possible rain showers and cooling temperatures. The next major frontal system to watch would be on 11/2. A Low associated with this front stalls in a double barrel Low over Southern CO bringing a very good setup for abundant snow with an upslope component lasting through the weekend and clearing out by Sunday 11/4. Right now the GFS model shows the snow machine starting up on Friday 11/2 midday and increasing intensity Friday night into Saturday morning, and slowing down by Saturday night. Based on the current model run I have, I am projecting accumulations in the 6-8 inch range for the Denver area. This projection is a long range and will need to update timing and details of the system. Check back later for more details...

Post from old Blog

2007-10-23T08:34:00.000-06:00

Updated on October 20th,2007.
Short Range-
Frontal passage looks to be around midnight tonight with mostly Northerly winds around 15-20 mph after passage. 100 kt jet streak embedded in a piece of the jet stream down stream of the trough axis will add upper level dynamics and enhance precip effects of snow Sunday morning across the Metro area. The snow is expected overnight Saturday thru Sunday midday. Accumulations projected between 1-4 inches across Metro area with the higher accumulations closer towards the foothills.
Long Range-
So far looking fairly quite through next week with another frontal passage happening on 10/26, bringing possible snow with cold air mass. After that a Pacific cold front looks to setup in Eastern CO on 10/30, looks like mostly rain at this point but could definitely be an upslope event…more details to follow.

New Blog

2007-10-23T08:29:00.000-06:00

This is my new blog area for discussing the Denver metro area weekly weather and will update it whenever I can, usually once a week for sure. Check in once in awhile to see whats happening...