Snow Mountain Ranch Forecast

Thurs 7:49am

TODAY
Partly sunny. Highs 11 to 17. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows near zero. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.
CHRISTMAS DAY
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. highs around 19.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. lows 5 below to 1 above zero. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill readings 10 below to 20 below zero after midnight.
SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 19. West winds 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows 5 below to 15 below zero.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s. lows around 4 below.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs around 20. Lows 1 below to 9 below zero.

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009--Urgent Update**

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
453 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

...GUSTY WINDS AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...

.A LARGE WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LAST NIGHT HAD
BLOCKED SOME RURAL ROADS. SNOWFALL WAS DECREASING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL END IN ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM
THIS STORM HAS RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS WINTER STORM. TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS THE
IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE MORE SEVERE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS IN AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIGGSDALE TO
FORT MORGAN AND DEER TRAIL WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW
TODAY.

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009--Update*

Click here for Your Forecast

Snow Mountain Ranch 2009

Greetings All!!
We are closing in on yet another Wonderful Christmas in the Rockies! I am definitely looking forward to spending time with all of the family and sharing in many fun activities and the Reason for this joyous season!

I would like to give you all an update on the weather and travel across Colorado during our time together. We are currently sitting at a forecast time of about 204 hours out from today. For those traveling on Thursday expect some light snow showers possible in the Central Mountains and Berthoud Pass. Friday travelers could see less of a chance of snow along the Pass. There is no significant weather showing in the models at this time for travelers arriving. Temperatures are ranging from low teens at night to mid to upper 20's during the day. The only significant weather pattern showing up is about 264 hours out on Sunday. An upper level trough is projected to impact the central mountains with light to moderate snow accumulation lasting into Monday morning. Any inch accumulation is difficult to predict at this time. The position of this upper level disturbance will play an important role as to the amount of snow we could expect to see at the YMCA. As the forecast window decreases this will be easier to track and predict the significance of this Sunday storm. More to come in the following days!

Below is a Temperature grid for Thursday evening:

Snow 10/29/2009

This large winter storm is finally starting to depart with snow tapering off through this evening. Total snowfall so far is 16.0 inches with very light snow still continuing. Tomorrow should be much warmer than today and provide some decent sunshine most of the afternoon. This weekend and first part of next week will be clear and sunny for the most part and temperatures will try to make it back to near normal by middle part of next week.

Strong Early Winter Storm

An early winter storm has hit the Denver Metro area with a strong punch. Temperatures struggled to reach towards 30F degrees today. Snowfall continued throughout much of the day off and on as the strong Upper Level low slowly moved eastward from the Four Corners. By 7:45pm MDT I measured 10.5 inches here in Centennial.

More pictures to follow tomorrow....

My First Tornados

6/7/09 Chase # 3

Much to catch up on!...

Caught Tornado number 1 and 2 today. The unfortunate part of today was I didn’t have my regular camera with me or any other chasing gear. All I had was my phone; Thank you Verizon for your VZ Navigator coverage in Southern Arapahoe and North Western Elbert counties. I happened to be in the Aurora area when tornado number 1 touched down. Tornado sirens were blaring and the sky was very dark. I was so excited to see my very first tornado. With not really having a plan to storm chase today, I decided to give it my best effort and try to get just a little bit closer to this tornado and maybe be able to snag a couple pictures from my camera phone. I took what pictures I could and kept trying to get closer to this “tube”. I was also trying to stay out of the major hail core that was falling from the northern edge of the core. I made my way to Southland’s Mall where significant damage was strewn about. At this point I was observing that the storm was redeveloping to the south of my current position and looked to be re-intensifying. I headed south towards the Kiowa area as fast as I could to try to catch up with this re-development. Storm motion was almost due east and at a fairly fast pace. As soon as I got far enough south of the core I headed due east towards the base of the now-present wall cloud several miles east. Upon my travel eastward a funnel cloud formed and touched down making this Tornado number 2 near Deer Trail on I-70. This second tornado did not last long but long enough for a few pictures to tell the story. As the tornado development died off and continue to move eastward I decide to call it a day and make my way back home. This was a great chase day and bagged my first two tornados for the afternoon.

Chase Miles: 78.0

Solo Storm Chase May 24th

I went on my first solo storm chase on Sunday May 24th. I was heading home from church around 1pm, noticed that the skies were looking very ripe for storm development. Upon looking at a surface plot I noticed a convergence line that had setup in the Denver metro area and storms were firing off this line and propagating northeast. I made a quick look at updated imagery and decided to grab my gear and head out to try to catch some storms. As soon as I got the vehicle setup I noticed a tornado warning had been issued for the northern Denver area. This storm fired off the convergence line near Commerce City and rapidly developed into a rotating mesocyclone. A couple of colleagues were already northeast of this tornado warned cell and catching some amazing photos from it. I headed north on I25, then up on I76 to Hudson. Filled up on fuel and received an updated radar scan on GR from a wifi spot (Thanks Eric!). Decided to head east on Highway 52 trying to beat a 1.0” hail producing storm before it crossed the highway. I arrived in Prospect Valley at the intersection of Highway 52 and 79 with only experiencing heavy rain and small hail. I collected some photos and continued heading south on Highway 79 towards Bennett. From Bennett I headed east and stopped in Strasburg. I received several updated radar scans and collected some nice photos and video of the gust front shelf cloud advancing eastward. GR radar was showing a cell moving north towards Deer Trail so I set out to try to intercept. Arrived in Deer Trail but couldn’t get ahead of the storm so I changed course and continued to watch the shelf cloud rolling eastward and showing some small scale low level circulation. I watched this cell for awhile until it lined out, then decided to head back home and caught up with some other chasers for some dinner. Made for a great day with good photos and fun! Total Miles: 188 miles.
Pictures:
Video:

Storms on the plains tonight

Strong storms are rocking western and central Nebraska tonight. Strong instability and an abundant moisture field is firing off these severe storms. With dew points still in the 60's and surface convergence boundary line, this provides for a great mechanism to fire off these storms. Strong southerly low level jet and a decent area of CAPE will keep these storms going into the night.

North Platte is getting hammered by these storms. Rotation is noted on the storm south of North Platte with a low level change in velocity of 40 knots, fairly strong!

A severe storm rocking southern Nebraska this evening. This is just east of my old hometown of McCook, NE. This storm was putting down 1.25 inch hail across Furnas county.

Severe Storms in NE Colorado tonight

This 0.50 degree scan from Goodland is looking north towards Yuma, CO and Imperial, NE

Snow for Colorado

Well a great looking storm system as far as the alignment of the trough axis to give significant weather to Colorado. The unfortunate part is this system is tracking too far north to bring anything of significance to Colorado. However the western slope is getting a good shot of snow Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning before the trough kicks out and keeps heading east. Models show the trough propagating eastward without much deepening and intensification as it moves over Colorado.

Tuesday:
Western slope will have rainy conditions in the valleys and snow in the high mountain passes. Frontal passage will take place later afternoon/evening period with windy conditions along the western slope during frontal passage. Rain changing to snow late afternoon/evening with broadening across western slope and snow intensifying overnight into Wednesday morning. Upper level dynamic not playing much of a role with snow accumulation. Mid level forcing induced by terrain will be the main forcing component for the intense snow periods. Snow totals Tuesday night/Wednesday morning hard to pin point. Models showing anywhere around 3-6” around Vail/Aspen with 6-12” over the Flattops. Rabbit Ears could pick up 4-8” by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday:
Snow taping off in late morning hours as the system moves eastward. Cold temperatures will dominant as high pressure and subsidence builds in behind the exiting system. Light snow possible throughout the day for western slope. For the Denver area, Foothills and high mountains could see a few inches of snow from this system but nothing much expected other than possible rain showers for the Metro area.

Colder Weather

After a cold and wet weekend the upper level low is still in place over the dessert SW but will be moving out quickly to the NE. As it moves east tropical moisture will move northward and bring cloudiness tomorrow afternoon to the Front Range area. This will clear out by Wednesday mid-day and bring a nice remaining part of the week. We will continue to have cold mornings near freezing for the next few days.

Changing weather this weekend

An upper level system is forecasted to dig into southern California Saturday morning. On Sunday morning the upper level Low is expected to eject out of the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies with a 100kt jet max over Colorado. This will provide great upper level support for enhanced moisture convergence in the lower levels on Sunday. A shallow ridge will build in wake of this dynamic trough towards the end of next week.

Saturday mid-day mid level moisture will be transported in the low level jet from the south and increase throughout the day. SW flow will dominate the Colorado region as the upper level system tracks NE on Sunday. Drier NW flow will return to CO by late Monday as the system travels into Canada.

The remaining part of this week will be fairly nice and then a major change for the weekend. A lee-side Low will form on the eastern plains as the main system makes it's way into Colorado Saturday morning. SE flow will dominate the surface levels bringing abundant moisture up from the Gulf late Saturday, producing rain showers across the Central Rockies. Surface moisture convergence will be the strongest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Cold front passage looks to be early Sunday morning along with rain showers. Precip ending by Sunday night and clearing out by Monday morning. Winds will be gusty around 15-20 kts before and during frontal passage.

Temperatures with this system will be colder but not likely for snow in the Denver area. There is a chance that some rain/snow mix might be present on Sunday morning but temperatures still warm enough keeping it in a rain form. After the system totally ejects out the a High pressure moves in, subsidence with cold air will be in place for a few days beginning next week. Lows Monday and Tuesday will be hovering around freezing and slow to warm through the week.

Storm Chase Photos

First Storm Chase

I went on my first storm chase ever and it was a blast! Dann Cianca, Jeff Auger and I headed out to northeastern CO on Sunday September 21, to try to catch some storms firing off of the advancing trough from the Pacific. As the afternoon went on we observed lots of convection to our north up in Nebraska panhandle and decided to engage on an intercept. Our target area was Sidney NE with a severe warned mesocyclone supercell just north of the town. As we got closer to our target it was advancing ESE just north of Oshkosh NE. We continued to pursue our target storm even though our road network was getting less opportunistic and daylight was getting shorter. As we headed north of Lisco we noticed our storm was weakening and a large rain and hail shaft spilled out behind the main core. We were loosing our chance of an intercept with a dissipating storm. At this moment we decided to end the chase of this beautiful storm but were thrilled that we had the chance to watch the evolution of this storm. What a wonderful site!! As we started to head back towards home we came across some mature storms giving off cloud-to-ground lightning at the CO/NE border. We stopped along the road to capture some amazing lightning filling the night sky. After an hour and a half we decided we had captured our fill of lightning photos and decided to pack it on home. After 12 hours of traveling and observing the wonderful landscape we were satisfied with our successful chase.

Weather this week

Updated on September 16th 2008.
Fairly strong high pressure is dominating our area at the current hour and will remain for the next couple of days through this week. On Wednesday and lee side trough will develop on the eastern plains while the western slope will experience increasing clouds and precip associated with a short wave trough moving through tracking towards the NE. Mountain areas could see some lingering clouds and precip with remaining moisture in the mid levels. As the weekend approaches, moderate upper level system will push east across the western US. On Saturday increasing clouds along western CO with precip developing in the afternoon. Eastern CO will experience upslope flow on the plains with clouds developing late Saturday. Sunday will continue to have cloudiness through the morning. On Sunday afternoon a lee side Low will develop and last into Monday morning generating conditions for increasing clouds throughout the day. A strong area of moisture convergence will be present along with precip developing Monday afternoon and evening. These conditions will maintain into Tuesday.

Associated with these surface conditions is the upper level support necessary for these conditions to lapse. An upper level trough system will reach the CA coast on Friday and dissipate as it rolls over the Sierra Nevada Range and down onto the Eastern Great Basin. A second wave in this trough will redevelop on Sunday and continue to dig across the Eastern Great Basin but will only provide a weak jet influence on the CO region as it crosses CO on Monday. This weak upper level support will influence showers and cooler temperatures across the Front Range but will not lead to anything of significance.

Long time no blogging...

It has been several months since I have written a blog. Lots of changes since then...I finally graduated college from Metro State with a Meteorology degree in May. Soon after that I started a summer job with Jefferson County Sheriffs Office in Emergency Management working on a fuels crew. We cut trees and chipped all the brush and moved logs with big machines. It was a great experience and enjoyed my time with them. I originally took the job thinking we would be doing more wildland fire related stuff and also have a good potential to do weather observations in the field. As it turned out we only went on a couple small fires and I had the privillage of taking weather obs on those fires. So that was a good experience. The rest of the time we were in the forest cutting trees creating a fire break along a community road.

After a few months of doing that type of work I realized that I needed to move on to a more professional and stable job since that was only seasonal work. I really wanted to get some sort of weather related job just to start out and get my feet wet. Lucky for me I had some personal contacts that I got a hold of for a reference to a local meteorological software company. A couple weeks later I was interviewing for a software test position for part time work. It turns out that on Monday September 8th I was hired on by IPS MeteoStar Inc. in Englewood, CO for a meteorological software tester.

So far I am really trying to dive into the job and learn as much as I can working hard. This new job is a step into the hallway of meteorology. I am excited to work for a local Met company where my wife can continue to sprout her career as an EMT in Denver. I am hoping to have a little more extra time to do some of my own forecasting and be able to post updates here. Hopefully I can do a better job of posting than previously.....

Stay tuned!!!

Active March

Time to catch up on my bloging...
So far March has had an active weather track. Recently the models seem to have a hard time progging these spring like storms. The GFS for the last four days has had a significantly strong trough impacting the Front Range area on Sunday and Monday leaving a mess of rain and much accumulating snow. However just yesterday the GFS is throwing this main area of energy south of Colorado which leaves only light accumulations for the Front Range area.

Zonal westerly flow is bringing Pacific moisture over the mountains and onto the plains in the form of rain on the plains and heavy snow in the mountains. For the remaining part of the week and the weekend mostly zonal flow with small meridional perturbations in the flow. Saturday night increasing SW flow ahead of the next trough will bring a development of light clouds through Sunday morning. As the trough slowly continues to dig south prominant SW flow through Sunday evening with increasing clouds and light precip, mostly rain and a snow mix at night, for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday morning the system starts to eject out and up to the Great Plains. On Tuesday a ridge is building with NW flow and possibly some light clouds. Zonal flow appears to dominate for the remaining part of the mid week.

Weather this Week

Snowy Sunday with light snow showers ending tonight while a shallow ridge high pressure will move into the area for a couple days acting to warm the atmosphere with NW flow. Wednesday things will start to change with a small short wave pushing down on the ridge giving mostly Wly to possibly SW flow ahead of a small trough cutting in.