Monday, November 3, 2008

Snow for Colorado

Well a great looking storm system as far as the alignment of the trough axis to give significant weather to Colorado. The unfortunate part is this system is tracking too far north to bring anything of significance to Colorado. However the western slope is getting a good shot of snow Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning before the trough kicks out and keeps heading east. Models show the trough propagating eastward without much deepening and intensification as it moves over Colorado.

Western slope will have rainy conditions in the valleys and snow in the high mountain passes. Frontal passage will take place later afternoon/evening period with windy conditions along the western slope during frontal passage. Rain changing to snow late afternoon/evening with broadening across western slope and snow intensifying overnight into Wednesday morning. Upper level dynamic not playing much of a role with snow accumulation. Mid level forcing induced by terrain will be the main forcing component for the intense snow periods. Snow totals Tuesday night/Wednesday morning hard to pin point. Models showing anywhere around 3-6” around Vail/Aspen with 6-12” over the Flattops. Rabbit Ears could pick up 4-8” by Wednesday morning.

Snow taping off in late morning hours as the system moves eastward. Cold temperatures will dominant as high pressure and subsidence builds in behind the exiting system. Light snow possible throughout the day for western slope. For the Denver area, Foothills and high mountains could see a few inches of snow from this system but nothing much expected other than possible rain showers for the Metro area.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Colder Weather

After a cold and wet weekend the upper level low is still in place over the dessert SW but will be moving out quickly to the NE. As it moves east tropical moisture will move northward and bring cloudiness tomorrow afternoon to the Front Range area. This will clear out by Wednesday mid-day and bring a nice remaining part of the week. We will continue to have cold mornings near freezing for the next few days.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Changing weather this weekend

An upper level system is forecasted to dig into southern California Saturday morning. On Sunday morning the upper level Low is expected to eject out of the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies with a 100kt jet max over Colorado. This will provide great upper level support for enhanced moisture convergence in the lower levels on Sunday. A shallow ridge will build in wake of this dynamic trough towards the end of next week.

Saturday mid-day mid level moisture will be transported in the low level jet from the south and increase throughout the day. SW flow will dominate the Colorado region as the upper level system tracks NE on Sunday. Drier NW flow will return to CO by late Monday as the system travels into Canada.

The remaining part of this week will be fairly nice and then a major change for the weekend. A lee-side Low will form on the eastern plains as the main system makes it's way into Colorado Saturday morning. SE flow will dominate the surface levels bringing abundant moisture up from the Gulf late Saturday, producing rain showers across the Central Rockies. Surface moisture convergence will be the strongest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Cold front passage looks to be early Sunday morning along with rain showers. Precip ending by Sunday night and clearing out by Monday morning. Winds will be gusty around 15-20 kts before and during frontal passage.

Temperatures with this system will be colder but not likely for snow in the Denver area. There is a chance that some rain/snow mix might be present on Sunday morning but temperatures still warm enough keeping it in a rain form. After the system totally ejects out the a High pressure moves in, subsidence with cold air will be in place for a few days beginning next week. Lows Monday and Tuesday will be hovering around freezing and slow to warm through the week.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Storm Chase Photos

First Storm Chase

I went on my first storm chase ever and it was a blast! Dann Cianca, Jeff Auger and I headed out to northeastern CO on Sunday September 21, to try to catch some storms firing off of the advancing trough from the Pacific. As the afternoon went on we observed lots of convection to our north up in Nebraska panhandle and decided to engage on an intercept. Our target area was Sidney NE with a severe warned mesocyclone supercell just north of the town. As we got closer to our target it was advancing ESE just north of Oshkosh NE. We continued to pursue our target storm even though our road network was getting less opportunistic and daylight was getting shorter. As we headed north of Lisco we noticed our storm was weakening and a large rain and hail shaft spilled out behind the main core. We were loosing our chance of an intercept with a dissipating storm. At this moment we decided to end the chase of this beautiful storm but were thrilled that we had the chance to watch the evolution of this storm. What a wonderful site!! As we started to head back towards home we came across some mature storms giving off cloud-to-ground lightning at the CO/NE border. We stopped along the road to capture some amazing lightning filling the night sky. After an hour and a half we decided we had captured our fill of lightning photos and decided to pack it on home. After 12 hours of traveling and observing the wonderful landscape we were satisfied with our successful chase.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Weather this week

Updated on September 16th 2008.
Fairly strong high pressure is dominating our area at the current hour and will remain for the next couple of days through this week. On Wednesday and lee side trough will develop on the eastern plains while the western slope will experience increasing clouds and precip associated with a short wave trough moving through tracking towards the NE. Mountain areas could see some lingering clouds and precip with remaining moisture in the mid levels. As the weekend approaches, moderate upper level system will push east across the western US. On Saturday increasing clouds along western CO with precip developing in the afternoon. Eastern CO will experience upslope flow on the plains with clouds developing late Saturday. Sunday will continue to have cloudiness through the morning. On Sunday afternoon a lee side Low will develop and last into Monday morning generating conditions for increasing clouds throughout the day. A strong area of moisture convergence will be present along with precip developing Monday afternoon and evening. These conditions will maintain into Tuesday.

Associated with these surface conditions is the upper level support necessary for these conditions to lapse. An upper level trough system will reach the CA coast on Friday and dissipate as it rolls over the Sierra Nevada Range and down onto the Eastern Great Basin. A second wave in this trough will redevelop on Sunday and continue to dig across the Eastern Great Basin but will only provide a weak jet influence on the CO region as it crosses CO on Monday. This weak upper level support will influence showers and cooler temperatures across the Front Range but will not lead to anything of significance.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Long time no blogging...

It has been several months since I have written a blog. Lots of changes since then...I finally graduated college from Metro State with a Meteorology degree in May. Soon after that I started a summer job with Jefferson County Sheriffs Office in Emergency Management working on a fuels crew. We cut trees and chipped all the brush and moved logs with big machines. It was a great experience and enjoyed my time with them. I originally took the job thinking we would be doing more wildland fire related stuff and also have a good potential to do weather observations in the field. As it turned out we only went on a couple small fires and I had the privillage of taking weather obs on those fires. So that was a good experience. The rest of the time we were in the forest cutting trees creating a fire break along a community road.

After a few months of doing that type of work I realized that I needed to move on to a more professional and stable job since that was only seasonal work. I really wanted to get some sort of weather related job just to start out and get my feet wet. Lucky for me I had some personal contacts that I got a hold of for a reference to a local meteorological software company. A couple weeks later I was interviewing for a software test position for part time work. It turns out that on Monday September 8th I was hired on by IPS MeteoStar Inc. in Englewood, CO for a meteorological software tester.

So far I am really trying to dive into the job and learn as much as I can working hard. This new job is a step into the hallway of meteorology. I am excited to work for a local Met company where my wife can continue to sprout her career as an EMT in Denver. I am hoping to have a little more extra time to do some of my own forecasting and be able to post updates here. Hopefully I can do a better job of posting than previously.....

Stay tuned!!!

Friday, March 14, 2008

Active March

Time to catch up on my bloging...
So far March has had an active weather track. Recently the models seem to have a hard time progging these spring like storms. The GFS for the last four days has had a significantly strong trough impacting the Front Range area on Sunday and Monday leaving a mess of rain and much accumulating snow. However just yesterday the GFS is throwing this main area of energy south of Colorado which leaves only light accumulations for the Front Range area.

Zonal westerly flow is bringing Pacific moisture over the mountains and onto the plains in the form of rain on the plains and heavy snow in the mountains. For the remaining part of the week and the weekend mostly zonal flow with small meridional perturbations in the flow. Saturday night increasing SW flow ahead of the next trough will bring a development of light clouds through Sunday morning. As the trough slowly continues to dig south prominant SW flow through Sunday evening with increasing clouds and light precip, mostly rain and a snow mix at night, for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday morning the system starts to eject out and up to the Great Plains. On Tuesday a ridge is building with NW flow and possibly some light clouds. Zonal flow appears to dominate for the remaining part of the mid week.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Weather this Week

Snowy Sunday with light snow showers ending tonight while a shallow ridge high pressure will move into the area for a couple days acting to warm the atmosphere with NW flow. Wednesday things will start to change with a small short wave pushing down on the ridge giving mostly Wly to possibly SW flow ahead of a small trough cutting in.

Storm Chasing Convention 2008

My dad and I attended the 10th annual Storm Chasing Convention here in Denver this past weekend. It was an absolute blast to hear and see all the information presented in addition to the pictures and videos presented. We got the see the TIV and DOW from the Discovery Channel TV show. Here are some pictures from our awesome weekend!!!

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Active Weather

Another active weather week in store for much of Colorado, mostly the western slope. Snow will develop on western slope and largely in SW CO by Sunday night. Monday morning snow will start moving into Metro area and increase intensity by late afternoon. Fairly light accumulations should be expected. Snow continue into late evening hours possible and ending over night. This large dynamic disturbance will move out of state on Tuesday. Another short wave system from NW will impact the western slope late in the week. A fairly strong High pressure will build in place over W CO giving continued NW downsloping flow

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

AMS Conference coming to an End

It has been a great two days filled with lots of seminars on several interesting topics covering: smoke forecasting using BlueSky network, Severe weather topics, tornadoe topics, new WRF weather modeling framework, and lightning stepped leader process. Tomorrow I will attend a couple more sessions and then will head to the airport to return home tomorrow night.

Tonight we went to a small Grill/bar off Bourbon Street and I had aligator sasuage on a sandwich, tasting something like pork. It was mighty good!! Then leaving the restaurant we encountered foggy streets and a local marching band playing on the corner. We stopped to enjoy the music and pictures.

Weather here has started to change again. Southerly flow from the Gulf has opened up allowing moist air to come onshore. This warm moist air over cool ground has provided the foggy conditions here in the city, probably will remain through the night into the morning hours until the sun can burn off the low layer. I also noticed an upper level cut-off Low has been dominating over the Pacific SW allong side a small amount of the subtropical jet kicking some moisture over to the deep south. Models indicate this cut-off Low will get entrained into a trough setting up over the Pacific NW while another trough behind this will drop in yet another cut-off Low for more of the same conditions over the SW US.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Exploring New Orleans

It remains cold here in New Orleans with temperatures in upper 30's. It was nice and sunny today with a light breeze. We went to the French Quarter and saw a local Mardi Gras parade last night and walked down Bourbon Street in the French Quarter. There was lots of people and lots of music. Today we took a walk on the River Walk Mall by the convention center and got to see the Mississippi River. After finishing up at the Student Conference we stopped at our first Cajun restaurant for some good tasting grub. Tomorrow starts the main part of the conference and exhibit hall which should be fun!

As far as weather, looking at the upper level model, the short range is showing a cut-off Low retrograding back over the Pacific SW. This setup will bring precipitation to CO and LA into the mid part of the week with the main trough moving trough.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Cold in the South!

It is cold here in New Orleans, around 40 F with a stiff Pontchartrain breeze. It was raining very heavy this morning on our 6 block walk to the convention center to start our Student Conference. I had a nice rain jacket which worked great to keep my shirt dry but didn't help my jeans since all the water was shed down onto my pants. Needless to say all of our pants were soaked to start off our morning. Between the rain coming down and dodging the large street puddles we were doing pretty well. The conference has been really good so far, have a little break this afternoon and then a career fair tonight. Afterwards might try to find a cajun place to eat.

As far as weather goes, our cloudy skies here will be clearing out soon and maybe get a peek of sunshine before the day is over while the trough continues to move out across Florida. Looking on satellite Colorado is sitting under a shallow high pressure ridge bringing NW flow.

Live from LA

Good morning. I am live from New Orleans, LA attending the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Annual Conference. It is rainy this morning with clearing on the way for us. Satellite shows a clearing line west of our location moving this way. An arctic cold front is pushing south meeting this abundant moisture line giving freeze warnings for our area. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold here. I will update later but need to get going for opening day. Cheers to all!!!

Monday, January 7, 2008

More Snow!

Currently steady snowfall in SW Denver at this hour with a nice SE wind bringing snow bands through the area. Low pressure located near four corners area associated with a upper level trough will continue to move eastward but will hang up in the central mountains later this afternoon before making it onto eastern plains late tonight. This will give the Front Range area a shifting wind from the East to the North to finally NW by early morning. Low level SE flow mixed with upper level SW flow are great ingredients for Front Range snow lasting into this evening late. Accumulation in SW Denver area will be 1-3 inches. After the trough passes a shallow ridge will form in place and clear the skies for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon should see light clouds form lasting through Thursdays morning ahead of the next system to affect the Western Slope Wednesday and Thursday.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Big System Coming Through!!

Short Range-
Currently clouds and snow over western CO. Radar picking up snow and moisture that is continuing to develop on western slope. Large upper level trough of Low pressure still hanging in the W US and bringing moisture into CO with SW flow. High resolution model showing very light snow accumulation for Denver area starting around 10 am Sunday morning, 1-6-07. Long term model showing another shot for snow in the Denver area on Monday as the big trough continues Eastward slowly. NW flow will return after the trough passes through leaving mild conditions on eastern slope.