Monday, November 19, 2007

More Changes Coming...

Short Range-
Major changes this week with two snow storms on track to bring only light accumulations to the Front Range. A cold front associated with the first storm is expected to pass through Tuesday morning slowly dropping the temperatures from abnormal highs. Light snow is expected to follow and develop from N to S across the Front Range on Wednesday early morning and decrease intensity late Wednesday evening with possible lingering showers on Thursday morning. Upper level dynamics looking fairly weak for any extra enhancement on the snow accumulations. Accumulations projected at 2-3 inches and will stick around for awhile due to very cold air mass following this cold front. A short break in the weather chain on Thursday before another round of snow associated with storm #2. A leak L pressure will develop over four corners area on Fri morning with possible light snow showers moving from S to N from the mostly Southerly flow around the Low. As the Low moves over Southern CO a slight shift in surface flow from S to SE will continue the snow showers into Friday night. Accumulations around 2-3 inches with this storm. Increasing High pressure from the NW will eject this system out giving slightly warmer temperatures through Wednesday 11/28.

Long Range-
A big system is brewing in the Pacific and will need to watch the timing as it approaches. Long range models are suggesting a lee side Low pressure to form over Central CO on Thursday 11/29 that looks to stall and intensify and move S over Northern NM and very slowly move East on 11/30. The position of the Low will provide an excellent upslope flow over the Eastern Slope bringing light snow Thursday night. As the Low intensifies and pushes slightly south moderate rates of snow could be expected across Eastern CO and SW NE on Friday. Friday night and into Saturday morning the Low continues to intensify and begins to eject out eastward which will act to increase pressure gradients, increasing the N to NW winds slightly, and continue the moderate rates of precip. Low continues to move eastward over Great Lakes region tapering off the snow over the Colorado/Nebraska area by Sunday. At this point models are showing around 1.0 inches of water content, which could translate into 10 inches of snow depending on quality of dendritic patterns (snow/ice crystal pattern). This is a storm to watch future develops as the days continue. Much could change by 1 DEC. Stay tuned...

No comments: