Storm Chasing Convention 2008

My dad and I attended the 10th annual Storm Chasing Convention here in Denver this past weekend. It was an absolute blast to hear and see all the information presented in addition to the pictures and videos presented. We got the see the TIV and DOW from the Discovery Channel TV show. Here are some pictures from our awesome weekend!!!

Active Weather

Another active weather week in store for much of Colorado, mostly the western slope. Snow will develop on western slope and largely in SW CO by Sunday night. Monday morning snow will start moving into Metro area and increase intensity by late afternoon. Fairly light accumulations should be expected. Snow continue into late evening hours possible and ending over night. This large dynamic disturbance will move out of state on Tuesday. Another short wave system from NW will impact the western slope late in the week. A fairly strong High pressure will build in place over W CO giving continued NW downsloping flow

AMS Conference coming to an End

It has been a great two days filled with lots of seminars on several interesting topics covering: smoke forecasting using BlueSky network, Severe weather topics, tornadoe topics, new WRF weather modeling framework, and lightning stepped leader process. Tomorrow I will attend a couple more sessions and then will head to the airport to return home tomorrow night.

Tonight we went to a small Grill/bar off Bourbon Street and I had aligator sasuage on a sandwich, tasting something like pork. It was mighty good!! Then leaving the restaurant we encountered foggy streets and a local marching band playing on the corner. We stopped to enjoy the music and pictures.

Weather here has started to change again. Southerly flow from the Gulf has opened up allowing moist air to come onshore. This warm moist air over cool ground has provided the foggy conditions here in the city, probably will remain through the night into the morning hours until the sun can burn off the low layer. I also noticed an upper level cut-off Low has been dominating over the Pacific SW allong side a small amount of the subtropical jet kicking some moisture over to the deep south. Models indicate this cut-off Low will get entrained into a trough setting up over the Pacific NW while another trough behind this will drop in yet another cut-off Low for more of the same conditions over the SW US.

Exploring New Orleans

It remains cold here in New Orleans with temperatures in upper 30's. It was nice and sunny today with a light breeze. We went to the French Quarter and saw a local Mardi Gras parade last night and walked down Bourbon Street in the French Quarter. There was lots of people and lots of music. Today we took a walk on the River Walk Mall by the convention center and got to see the Mississippi River. After finishing up at the Student Conference we stopped at our first Cajun restaurant for some good tasting grub. Tomorrow starts the main part of the conference and exhibit hall which should be fun!

As far as weather, looking at the upper level model, the short range is showing a cut-off Low retrograding back over the Pacific SW. This setup will bring precipitation to CO and LA into the mid part of the week with the main trough moving trough.

Cold in the South!

It is cold here in New Orleans, around 40 F with a stiff Pontchartrain breeze. It was raining very heavy this morning on our 6 block walk to the convention center to start our Student Conference. I had a nice rain jacket which worked great to keep my shirt dry but didn't help my jeans since all the water was shed down onto my pants. Needless to say all of our pants were soaked to start off our morning. Between the rain coming down and dodging the large street puddles we were doing pretty well. The conference has been really good so far, have a little break this afternoon and then a career fair tonight. Afterwards might try to find a cajun place to eat.

As far as weather goes, our cloudy skies here will be clearing out soon and maybe get a peek of sunshine before the day is over while the trough continues to move out across Florida. Looking on satellite Colorado is sitting under a shallow high pressure ridge bringing NW flow.

Live from LA

Good morning. I am live from New Orleans, LA attending the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Annual Conference. It is rainy this morning with clearing on the way for us. Satellite shows a clearing line west of our location moving this way. An arctic cold front is pushing south meeting this abundant moisture line giving freeze warnings for our area. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold here. I will update later but need to get going for opening day. Cheers to all!!!

More Snow!

Currently steady snowfall in SW Denver at this hour with a nice SE wind bringing snow bands through the area. Low pressure located near four corners area associated with a upper level trough will continue to move eastward but will hang up in the central mountains later this afternoon before making it onto eastern plains late tonight. This will give the Front Range area a shifting wind from the East to the North to finally NW by early morning. Low level SE flow mixed with upper level SW flow are great ingredients for Front Range snow lasting into this evening late. Accumulation in SW Denver area will be 1-3 inches. After the trough passes a shallow ridge will form in place and clear the skies for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon should see light clouds form lasting through Thursdays morning ahead of the next system to affect the Western Slope Wednesday and Thursday.

Big System Coming Through!!

Short Range-
Currently clouds and snow over western CO. Radar picking up snow and moisture that is continuing to develop on western slope. Large upper level trough of Low pressure still hanging in the W US and bringing moisture into CO with SW flow. High resolution model showing very light snow accumulation for Denver area starting around 10 am Sunday morning, 1-6-07. Long term model showing another shot for snow in the Denver area on Monday as the big trough continues Eastward slowly. NW flow will return after the trough passes through leaving mild conditions on eastern slope.

Snow ending soon!!!

Short Range-
Snow continuing across the Front Range area ending around midnight tonight. Totals in the SW Denver area are around 4-5 inches but deeper with areas of drifted snow. Temperatures should drop to near single digits tonight with clouds clearing late. Clear skies to return tomorrow and rest of the weekend, however temperatures will remain cold with thick snow cover. Western slope expected to see more snow this weekend but no snow expected here on eastern slope with a NW to W wind over the mountains acting to dry the atmosphere. Clouds could be expected Sunday night but nothing to special. Looking ahead into the coming week, strong amplified High pressure will dominate with a NW to W wind flow keeping us dry and slightly warmer through the week.

Snow coming Tonight!

Short Range-
Current trough is located in SW U.S. with SW flow currently in the region ahead of the advancing trough. Moisture starting to enter western CO at this hour. Snow storm on track for tonight, Wednesday 12/26, lasting through Thursday 12/27 into the evening hours. Snow machine expected to start up early Thursday morning lasting all day into evening hours giving around 3-4 inches in SW Denver. The upper level trough passing through on Thursday will give decent Q-G omega lifting component to help enhance snowfall rates on Thursday afternoon. Clearing out Friday with High pressure dominating through the weekend will give a NW wind.

Long Range-
Large amplified High pressure building for the start of the New Year remaining through the first week of January with a weak embedded trough passing on Friday 1/4. A slight chance of snow associate with the passing weak trough for Saturday 1/5. Looking fairly dry for the first part of the new year.... more to come!

Unsettled Pattern

Short Range-
The next cold front to impact our area is currently over NW Utah with prefrontal precipitation over Central Utah. As the front approaches our region temperatures will slowly drop through tomorrow morning, Friday, with frontal passage in the afternoon around 3pm. Precipitation in the form of snow associated with this front will develop with a wind from the north resulting in a small component of the upslope enhancement. Snowfall will continue through the evening and end overnight with winds picking up and shifting out of the NW to W. Total accumulations around 3-4 inches for SW Denver area and less accumulation towards the NE Denver area. Temperatures on Saturday will remain cold with clearing skies before the next system in the progressive wave pattern moves over the region. Clouds will build back into the Front Range area on Sunday afternoon ahead of a small short wave trough spinning up over Western Utah which will move through fairly quickly Sunday night and Monday.

Long Range-
A very unsettled pattern in the up coming week. It is looking like it will be a white Christmas for much of Colorado. The next amplified trough of low pressure will develop to the south and move southward on Christmas morning starting up the snow machine in the morning hours and continuing through the day with a north wind, ending overnight Tuesday. Only light snow expected with this small disturbance in the amount of 2-3 inches. The next system looks to have more of a punch as it will develop over the Four Corners area, intensify and slowly slide southward by Thursday mid-day. Precipitation will wrap up and around this low pressure system leaving around 3-4 inches by Friday afternoon. After these series of waves high pressure will build to the NW and hold fast. Looking into the beginning of the New Year the models are suggesting a fairly strong high pressure ridge holding the pattern.

Snow...Snow...Snow

I need to catch up now after Finals week. Small batch of moisture to our NW moving this way and will affect our region Thursday night and into Friday.

Short Range-
A weak short wave disturbance will be moving through the Front Range area Thursday night 12/13 with snow developing around 11pm Thursday night. Clouds will develop by Thursday afternoon with FROPA (frontal passage) over night. Snow will continue through late morning on Friday and taper off by the afternoon Friday. Vertical motion by Q-G forcing not very apparent, so upslope will not be very strong if any at all. Total snow accumulations around 2-3 inches. Clouds clearing by Saturday mid-day with NW flow and building shallow high pressure through rest of the weekend. New snow cover will provide strong radiational cooling and will drop temperatures to single digits by Saturday morning but will slightly warm up during day time heating.

Long Range-
Long range looking fairly dry and cold with W to NW flow dominating through the high pressure through the week. Next strong significant trough will dig south and bring moisture from Pacific NW late in the week. A cold front passage will take place on Friday 12/21 with snow developing along western CO as well as Front Range by Friday afternoon. Snow will continue through the night into Saturday morning and ending by Saturday night. Totals look to be around 4-5 inches. Strong Q-G vertical motion on Friday night giving significant upslope component along Northern Front Range enhancing snow fall. More details to come…

Weekend Update

Focus Region: NE Colorado and SW Nebraska

Short Range-

Models showing moisture filling in on western slope Friday night with southerly winds. Areas of Denver may see a trace of snow with this moisture fetch over the mountains. Models suggesting moisture will be advected North over KA and NE as well as NE CO by Saturday morning by a SE wind. The snow line looks to setup across the I-76 corridor around Ft. Morgan and get heavier the further to the East. Water equivalent around 0.01-0.10 inches which would equate to around 1 inch of snow in the Saturday morning hours. By 11 am all precipitation has moved E ahead of the Low pressure. Area of focus region temperatures around lower to mid 30's F. Any precipitation during the noon time looks to be in various forms, sleet, cold rain, wet snow, as the freezing line sits on Imperial, NE. 5pm Saturday light precipitation over the region with a SW wind changing to the North as a frontal boundary passes through bringing temperatures around the 30's. Saturday night a north wind dominates after frontal passage (FROPA) with temperatures around 30 F. Some radiational cooling from the surface from day time precipitation may occur which would drop the temperatures between 20's and 30's for Saturday night. Sunday morning a possible shower or two but otherwise looking to clear out as all precipitation has moved to the east. Sunday temperatures warming near 40's with strong NW wind around 15 mph. Travel home looks nice and clear but cool temperatures.

Changes for the Weekend

Short Range-
Current storm from the Southwest still on track for the weekend. Moisture will be in place over western slope of CO Friday night. Surface Low pressure position now expected to be over Central CO and will bring moisture from south to north across eastern CO and southwest NE and also along I-76 corridor for Saturday morning. Saturday noon the Low will deepen over the Rockies continuing to push moisture eastward. Saturday night the Low will move northeastward taking most of the moisture with it. Sunday morning low level moisture still hanging around leaving a possible shower or two. Sunday mid-day partial clearing skies with colder temperatures.

Saturday morning precipitation will be in the form of rain/snow/mix, take your pick, and will turn towards snow Saturday night as the cold air moves over the area. Temperatures Saturday morning will be slightly above freezing and will warm towards the noon time then drop off for nightfall due to partial clearing. Saturday max temperatures will be around upper 30's giving a cool rain process. Precipitation form may switch between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow throughout the day as the temperatures fluctuate. Precipitation totals for the I-76 corridor are expected to be around 0.20 inches, which may equate to around 2 inches of snow. Sunday temperatures will warm slightly to around 32 F by noon but will remain cold with clearing skies. I will update this again tonight or tomorrow morning with more details.

Unsettled Pattern

Short Range-
Several waves are setup to come through the area during this unsettled period. The first wave or disturbance will pass with a cold front from the north on Tuesday night 11-27. Behind it NW flow will provide a drying atmosphere giving way to little moisture on the Eastern slope. Cold air with this front will remain for most of the week as we have a very weak ridge setting up behind the frontal passage.

Long Range-
The big storm setup for Colorado that I have been watching for over a week is beginning to decay in the models. On Friday the shallow ridge of high pressure weakens and moves eastward as the next system forms up over the Eastern Great Basin and Four Corners area drawing rich moisture fields from the Pacific/Baja California region. An upper level cutoff Low gets entrained into the flow and the Low pressure over four corners will intensify. By Saturday morning large moisture fields are in place over Western Slope of CO. Saturday afternoon as the Low pressure moves eastward over Southern CO, an upslope component will develop bringing light showers of rain/snow mix across eastern CO and SW Nebraska through late Saturday night. Light snow accumulation around 2-3 inches could be expected with this shower activity throughout the day. By Sunday morning the Low pressure system will eject eastward over the Midwest leaving showers possible across CO and NE. Sunday midday looks to be clearing out with high pressure beginning to build over the area. Temperatures for the weekend across eastern CO and southwest NE will struggle to get above freezing with the exception of daytime heating.

More Changes Coming...

Short Range-
Major changes this week with two snow storms on track to bring only light accumulations to the Front Range. A cold front associated with the first storm is expected to pass through Tuesday morning slowly dropping the temperatures from abnormal highs. Light snow is expected to follow and develop from N to S across the Front Range on Wednesday early morning and decrease intensity late Wednesday evening with possible lingering showers on Thursday morning. Upper level dynamics looking fairly weak for any extra enhancement on the snow accumulations. Accumulations projected at 2-3 inches and will stick around for awhile due to very cold air mass following this cold front. A short break in the weather chain on Thursday before another round of snow associated with storm #2. A leak L pressure will develop over four corners area on Fri morning with possible light snow showers moving from S to N from the mostly Southerly flow around the Low. As the Low moves over Southern CO a slight shift in surface flow from S to SE will continue the snow showers into Friday night. Accumulations around 2-3 inches with this storm. Increasing High pressure from the NW will eject this system out giving slightly warmer temperatures through Wednesday 11/28.

Long Range-
A big system is brewing in the Pacific and will need to watch the timing as it approaches. Long range models are suggesting a lee side Low pressure to form over Central CO on Thursday 11/29 that looks to stall and intensify and move S over Northern NM and very slowly move East on 11/30. The position of the Low will provide an excellent upslope flow over the Eastern Slope bringing light snow Thursday night. As the Low intensifies and pushes slightly south moderate rates of snow could be expected across Eastern CO and SW NE on Friday. Friday night and into Saturday morning the Low continues to intensify and begins to eject out eastward which will act to increase pressure gradients, increasing the N to NW winds slightly, and continue the moderate rates of precip. Low continues to move eastward over Great Lakes region tapering off the snow over the Colorado/Nebraska area by Sunday. At this point models are showing around 1.0 inches of water content, which could translate into 10 inches of snow depending on quality of dendritic patterns (snow/ice crystal pattern). This is a storm to watch future develops as the days continue. Much could change by 1 DEC. Stay tuned...

Possible Snow Coming for Turkey-Day

Short Range-
Should be a nice finish to our week with moderate temperatures under NW flow. Some moisture moves in at the mid levels giving a chance for some cloud development Saturday afternoon. We will be dominated by NW flow for the remaining part of the weekend acting to warm and dry the low level atmosphere. Monday returns with changing W to SW flow in advance of a major trough of Low pressure to move through on Tuesday.

Long Range-
Long range models are suggesting a major storm system to move through Tuesday bringing snow and some cold air to last through the week. A low pressure is expected to setup in W Kansas and move slightly south while losing strength. Frontal passage (FROPA) appears to be Tuesday morning with snow expected through the day on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before the system ejects Eastward on Wednesday leaving very cold air in place under a high pressure. The position of the surface Low is favorable for upslope flow giving enhanced snow accumulations. Accumulations right now appear to be 3-4 inches but depend on the dynamics of the system. Jet stream is placing a decaying 100knot jet streak over southern CO which will enhance system dynamics and help drive the upslope flow even more. We'll keep watching the models to see more details as the system approaches. Stay tuned...

Nothing Special This Week

Short Range-
Well a great Pacific system sure gave way to high pressure and clearing clouds. A little short on precip for sure and clearing clouds by afternoon. Expect more of the same mild and unseasonable weather for Tuesday. A weak disturbance to our North will bring increasing clouds on Wednesday with no signs of any major precip for the Front Range. A fairly strong high pressure will return once again on Thursday with clearing skies and NW flow warming us through the end of the week.

Long Range-
Long range is looking pretty quiet with nothing too significant to speak of in terms of major storms. Another small disturbance will move to our north on Saturday giving increasing cloudiness Saturday. The next possible system looks to be around Thanksgiving holiday but right now not looking too impressive. Things could change and the jet stream could shift further south and bring something significant our way in terms of moisture. Stay tuned....

A Slight Change

Short Range-
There is slight change in the forecast for the weekend. The remaining part of this week will be very nice and unseasonably warm under the High pressure dominating the West. Saturday a slight cool down is expected as we return to W to SW flow ahead of the advancing system. Winds should remain fairly calm but all in all a nice finish to our week.

Long Range-
Looking further into our weekend forecast, we should expect changing weather for Sunday as a strong Pacific system makes its way into Colorado. Unfortunately models are suggesting most of the moisture to stay in the mountains and be cloudy down in the Denver Front Range. This should be a great snow maker for the mountains on Sunday and Monday. Clouds are expected to increase on Sunday afternoon and remain over night into Monday mid-day. We could get a shot of rain/snow mix during this time but it is not looking favorable for heavy moisture as the Low pressure is setting up too far East. Skies should mostly clear out by Monday evening with possible lingering mid level cloud decks.

Quiet week ahead

Short Range-
Nothing much to speak of as far as weather concerns for the short range. Nice High pressure dominating our area will bring gradual warming through the week.

Long Range-
The next pacific storm system comes onshore in the NW US on Saturday. The dominant high pressure will be replaced by a lee side Low that sets up on Sunday morning over Eastern CO and will bring moisture along with a cold front for Sunday evening. Chances of snow look pretty good for Sunday evening and overnight and into early Monday morning, providing this system doesn't get pushed to our north like other systems have the past few weeks. This system looks to be a quick mover and clear skies return on Monday afternoon. We'll watch the development of this system through this week.